AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures settled Monday with gains of 1 1/4 to 2 3/4 cents in most contracts. The USDA reported 965,608 MT of corn was inspected for export for the week ending June 22. That is 20.88% behind the previous week and 33.47% lower than a year ago. This afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report showed that 4% of the corn crop was silking, behind the average and last year’s 5%. Condition ratings were steady across the board with last week, with the Brugler500 rating at 369. The trade had been looking for an improvement. Looking ahead to this Friday’s 2017 Planted Acreage report, analysts on average are expecting 89.903 million acres were planted this spring, slightly down from March’s intentions number. AgRural is estimating that 9.3% of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is harvested, down from 12.5% last year. China is expected to sell 1.18 MMT of corn from state reserves on Thursday, with an additional 2.43 MMT on Friday. Ukraine has lowered their corn production forecast to 25.6 MMT from 28 MMT a year ago.

Jul 17 Corn closed at $3.59, up 1 1/4 cents,

Sep 17 Corn closed at $3.67 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents,

Dec 17 Corn closed at $3.77, up 1 3/4 cents

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.87, up 2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures closed mostly 2 to 3 1/2 cents in the green on Monday. July 17 soy meal was up 50 cents, with soy oil down 9 points in the front month. In this morning’s Export inspections report, soybean exports of 315,099 MT were reported, 14.39% larger than last week and 6.52% above last year for this week. US soybean emergence is even with last year at 94%, and ahead of the average of 91%. This week’s report indicated that 9% of the crop was blooming as of Sunday, ahead of the average at 7% and last year’s 8%. Condition ratings for this last week dropped 1% good/excellent to 66%, as the Brugler500 index is now at 366, down 2 points from last week. Traders are projecting soybean acreage to show a slight increase over the March number, at 89.750 million acres, with a range of 88.466-91.0 million acres in the published estimates.

Jul 17 Soybeans closed at $9.06 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans closed at $9.11 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans closed at $9.12 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.21 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal closed at $294.10, up $0.50,

Jul 17 Soybean Oil closed at $31.52, down $0.09

Wheat

Wheat futures finished with mixed trade on Monday. KC and CBT contracts were in the red mostly 10 1/4-11 1/4 cents and 6-9 cents respectively. MPLS was fractionally to 2 1/2 cents higher in most contracts. The winter wheat crop was 41% harvested as of Sunday, 1% behind last year but 2% ahead of the average. Conditions ratings were even with last week at 49% g/e, as the Brugler500 index rose 2 points on higher excellent ratings. The spring wheat crop is 26% headed, ahead of the average of 35% but well behind last year’s 52%. Ratings were down 1% to 40% good/ex, with a Brugler500 rating of 309 points.Traders are expecting another decline in the spring wheat condition ratings from USDA this afternoon and got a small decline. Wheat export inspections of 629,070 MT were reported this morning, down 15.01% from last week but up 22.55% from this time last year. Analysts are expecting the Planted Acreage report to show all wheat at 46 million acres, with winter at 32.83 mill ac, spring at 11.2 mac, and durum at 2 mac. Iraq is seeking 50,000 MT of US, Canadian, or Australian wheat, with the tender closing on July 3.

Jul 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.50, down 9 3/4 cents,

Jul 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.53, down 11 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.63 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures were $2.20 to $3.00 higher on Monday, with August was limit up. Feeder cattle futures posted limit gains in the three nearby contracts. Both Live and Feeder contracts will have expanded limits on Tuesday. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.25 on June 23 at $145.84. Wholesale beef prices were mixed in the Monday afternoon report, with choice boxes down $1.18 cents at $238.57. Select was 94 cents higher, with an average of $217.66. The Ch/Se spread is now down to $20.91. During the peak demand period it had been over $30. Estimated FI cattle slaughter for Monday was 117,000 head, 3,000 above last week and 6,000 greater than last year.

Jun 17 Cattle closed at $121.475, up $2.275,

Aug 17 Cattle closed at $118.275, up $3.000,

Oct 17 Cattle closed at $115.275, up $2.850,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.450, up $4.500

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.900, up $4.500

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.200, up $4.500

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are currently 42.5 cents to $1.225 higher in the nearby contracts. The CME Lean Hog Index for 6/22 was up another 87 cents to $90.17. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 20 cents in the afternoon report, with a weighted average of $101.35. The picnic and rib were the only cuts lower. The national base hog carcass price was 2 cents higher with a weighted average of $85.82 in the afternoon report. FI hog slaughter was estimated at 435,000 head on Monday, 11,000 more than the previous week and 9,000 head above last year.

Jul 17 Hogs closed at $87.025, up $1.725,

Aug 17 Hogs closed at $78.675, up $0.025

Oct 17 Hogs closed at $68.375, up $0.175

Cotton

Cotton futures reversed from losses earlier in the session to end with gains of 1 to 103 points in most contracts. The Crop progress report showed planting 98% complete, with 34% of the crop squared, vs. 28% last year and the average of 30%. This week’s report indicated that 7% of the crop has set bolls compared to 6% last year and the average of 5%. Overall ratings dropped 4% g/e to 57%. The Brugler500 index is at 357, down 7 points from last week. The Cotlook A index for June 23 was steady with the previous day at 82.60 cents/lb. Analysts are estimating that the planted acreage report will show a slight increase from March, at 12.278 million acres. On Monday, China sold 23,700 MT of cotton from state reserves, totaling 78.64% of the total 30,200 MT offered.

Jul 17 Cotton closed at 73.680, up 103 points,

Oct 17 Cotton closed at 68.980, up 1 point

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 67.180, up 16 points


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